Energy Technology Market Analysis
Jackson Associates (JA) provides comprehensive energy technology market analysis for both existing and new energy-related technologies. Analysis applications include current market potential with market segment detail and geographic detail ranging from utility service areas to national markets. MAISY analysis can also provide twenty-five year market forecasts to support new product development and strategic market analysis. Energy technology market analysis provides both financial and energy-related impact analysis. Energy use detail is provided by end use, market segment, geographic detail, and hourly load detail. Carbon emissions and other environmental impacts can also be provided.
JA has conducted technology analysis or supported client analysis for the following technologies:
- New technologies: combined heat and power systems, cool storage, flywheel systems, photovoltaic systems, fuel cells, wind technology, energy control technologies (smart grid technologies).
- Existing technologies: energy-efficient lighting, heating, air conditioning, ventilation, water heating, refrigeration, building shell, energy management and control systems and demand response-related technologies.
The remainder of this page illustrates JA technology analysis with several project descriptions and a discussion of technology adoption models used to forecast technoloyg adoption and technology impacts.
Technology analysis sample projects
Technology adoption forecasting models
Technology Analysis Sample Projects
New Electric Energy Storage Technology Company: Provided market profitability analysis of a new electricity storage technology based on analysis of utility customer hourly loads and utility rate structures at individual utility service areas across the US. This document was incorporated in the company's Private Placement Memordandum.
New Cool Storage Technology Company: Provided utility commercial customer databases including 8,760 hourly loads by end use and supported inhouse market analysis.
Japanese Fuel Cell Company: Provided detailed US market potential for residential fuel cell applications based on residential energy use and hourly load characteristics, utility rate structures and other factors.
Japanese Manufacturing Company: Analyzed US market potential for natural gas combined heat and power (CHP) systems. Forecast market potential and sales for alternative CHP designs. Provided market segment detail and geographic detail to support strategic marketing plans.
A Large Midwest Electric Utility: Conducted analysis of the market potential and market penetration of combined heat and power in midwest states. Analysis included forecasts under alternative electricity, natural gas, and equipment costs.
A US Fuel Cell Manufacturing Company: Conducted analysis of potential customer hourly energy use and market characteristics for new technology products.
A National Energy Service Company: Estimated market potential for a menu of energy service measures in a half dozen targeted states.
A European-Based Power Generation Equipment Manufacturer: Conducted microturbine market potential analysis for fifty US utility services areas.
Western Investor-Owned Utility: Developed an agent-based microsimulation model to determine market potential and adoption of alternative energy conservation measures under various demand-side management programs. Evaluated costs and benefits of alternative programs and identified optimal conservation program investments.
A Large US Power-Generation Equipment Manufacturer: Provided customer-detailed microsimulation databases and consulting support in product design and market potential analysis of fuel cell and CHP technologies for both residential and commercial building applications.
Southwestern Electric Utility: Developed sales potential and sales targets for electric heat pump marketing program.
Electric Utility Energy Service Company: Developed an online new combined heat and power technology analysis and forecasting system for individual electric utility service areas in the US.
Oak Ridge National Laboratory: Conducted market potential analysis of new coal-fired technologies.
National Renewable Energy Laboratory: Conducted market penetration analysis of solar technologies through 2020.
Technology Adoption and Forecasting Models
Jackson Associates' agent-based microsimulation models determine technology purchase decisions for a statistically representative sample of residential, commercial or industrial customers for any geographic area. Sample customers are drawn from the MAISY Utility Customer Databases. Information on building, equipment, operating hours, end-use energy use (including 8760 hourly end-use electric and thermal loads) and other data are available for each customer along with appropriate psychographic data (e.g., income, demographics) and firmographic data (e.g., business type detail, number of employees). Current year technology purchases are estimated for each sample utility customer, total purchases in the utility service area (or state) is calculated by applying weights to each of the sample customers and summing across all customers in the sample.
Energy, hourly load and equipment forecasts for future years are provided by updating the sample of customers for the first forecast year. A sample of new utility customers is added to the process to reflect new construction; customer weights in the existing sample are adjusted to reflect demolitions of existing buildings. The new customer sample reflects recently new customers drawn from the MAISY databases. The same process is completed for each year in the forecast period.
Energy use and equipment characteristics of each sample customer can change in each forecast year. Existing equipment wears out and is replaced. The efficiency and energy use for these end uses is changed to reflect new equipment. For new construction, efficiency and energy use and fuel choices are incorporated in individual sample customer records. Energy price changes cause changes in utilization of most end-use equipment (e.g., increasing natural gas prices result in thermostat changes). Utilization and fuel choices are modeled with econometrically derived parameters and efficiency changes are modeled with econometrically derived parameters and/or with information on efficiency possibilities and appliance and building standards.
MAISY agent-based microsimulation models begin with a comprehensive, basic characterization of energy use at the individual customer level. This comprehensive representation allows the models to reflect customer choices of new energy technologies, participation in incentive programs, purchase impacts of alternative equipment design and characteristics and responses to various marketing programs.
Agent-based microsimulation model forecast characteristics include:
- Residential, commercial and industrial sector analysis
- New technologies, energy efficient technology, demand response activities, load control, CHP, other energy technology analysis
- Market potential and annual sales forecasts
- Energy impacts including 8,760 hourly electric and thermal loads by end use
- Target market identification
- Analysis of alternative cost, efficiency and other technology characteristics
- Marketing program impacts on annual sales forecasts
See the section on Forecasting Models for more information